Echoes From
BY JOHNNY DAYANG

Is PGMA just plain lucky?

President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo will exit the presidency a much unpopular leader, but the economic legacy she will leave behind is something the next President and the rest of the Filipinos, will be thankful for.
The underlying trends and economic indicators definitely indicate a strong finish to PGMAs presidency. Car sales are in an uptrend posting 33.8 percent gain in January compared to the same period in 2009, even higher than the pre-crisis January 2008 level. Passenger car sales have likewise recovered 14.3 percent but commercial vehicles leapt 46 percent.
The country’s exports rebounded 23.6% last December after recovering 5.7% the previous month, after over a year of decline.
Remittances by overseas Filipino workers posted an impressive 11.3% increase in November and must have further accelerated in December to January.
Property sales likewise reported gains, driven by BPO demand whose revenues grew 19% in 2009. In the third quarter of last year, non-residential construction leapt 41%.
Taken together with reconstruction and election spending on the upswing, aggregate demand is likely to accelerate this first quarter, particularly with monetary policy remaining benign, HSBC sees a 5.1% rise while government economists are likely to upgrade their 2.6% projection to 3.6%. Others foresee a 4.2% rise.
The Philippine economy under PGMA actually fared better compared to previous administrations. Ferdinand Marcos left under disastrous political and economic circumstances. Corazon Aquino closed hers with a debilitating power crisis. It was not his fault but Fidel Ramos left the presidency with the economy hobbled by the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Joseph Estrada unceremoniously abandoned his presidency under a most discouraging political crisis.
Moreover, President Arroyo will be the first Philippine Chief Executive to end her term with the peso much stronger even if much of its strength is significantly derived from OFW remittances.
Marcos exiled Malacañang with the peso parity value with the US dollar depreciated by 82%; Aquino left office with the peso value 14% lower. Significantly, PGMA will leave office with the peso having appreciated 19% compared to when she took over from Estrada.
To cap it all, PGMA will leave office with the country having an all-time high of foreign reserves.
Is PGMA just plain lucky? Indeed, she seems so.